Pubblicato lo studio realizzato da Carlson Wagolit Travel (Cwt) insieme a Gbta (Global Business Travel Association): si tratta del 2018 Global Travel Forecast che si apre con una overview macroeconomica per presentare poi l’andamento dei prezzi attesi per i servizi di viaggio (air, hotel, noleggio auto) per il 2018 a livello global/ per area geografica, con approfondimenti anche per Paese. Per quanto riguarda l’Italia, i buyer potranno attendersi un aumento per le tariffe aeree (in media il 6%). Il valore più elevato riguarda le tratte domestiche in classe economy (+7,1%), seguono le tratte intercontinentali sia in economy che in business (6,1%), mentre quelle continentali si fermano a +5,6% per l’economy e al +4,9% per la business. Per le tariffe alberghiere sono attesi rialzi in media del 6%, con valori abbastanza omogenei tra le categorie (+5,9% per gli hotel up-scale, +6,2% per quelli di fascia media). Per il trasporto via terra i prezzi sono previsti stabili, in linea con le performance degli altri grandi mercati europei. La crescita dei prezzi in Italia risulta nettamente più alta della media internazionale, +4%.
Di seguito la nota in inglese sull’intera indagine. www.carlsonwagonlit.com
Strength in Global Economy Means Higher Travel Pricing in 2018
Air, Hotel and Ground Transportation All See Upticks on Back of Rising Inflation, Higher Oil Prices and Emerging Markets
BOSTON, 18 July 2017: According to the fourth annual 2018 Global Travel Forecast, travel prices are expected to rise sharply in the coming year, reaching nearly 4% increases in some sectors.
Released today by Carlson Wagonlit Travel, the global travel management company, and the GBTA Foundation, the education and research arm of the Global Business Travel Association, The 2018 Global Travel Forecast shows global airfares are expected to rise 3.5% in 2018; hotel prices are expected to be 3.7% higher; and ground transportation such as taxis, trains and buses are expected to rise only 1.6% – barely half the 3% inflation forecast for 2018.
“The higher pricing is a reflection of the stronger economy and growing demand,” said Kurt Ekert, president and CEO, Carlson Wagonlit Travel. “The global numbers from this forecast should be considered strong leading indicators of what 2018 will mean for global businesses, as we anticipate higher spending.”
“Geopolitical risks, uncertainties in emerging markets and ever-changing political environments in Europe and the United States mean today’s travel professionals have more than ever to take into account when building their travel programs,” said Jeanne Liu, GBTA Foundation vice president of research. “The most successful programs will have to keep a watchful eye on both geopolitical risks and a rapidly-changing supplier landscape as they reevaluate strategy often and adapt as necessary.”
2018 Air Projections
The uptick in global airfares comes as crude oil prices rise, in spite of airlines adding an expected 6% capacity in 2018. Complicating airline pricing is increased segmentation of basic fares among large carriers. Travelers now have the option of choosing a basic economy, restricted fare versus various upgraded fares, with specific service options and pricing varying by airline.
- 2018 Hotel ProjectionsGlobally, the 3.7% average increase in hotel prices masks what is actually happening on a regional level. Europe is expected to post strong increases, while other regions are barely keeping up with inflation. Additionally, prices are expected to fall in Latin America and the Caribbean. We expect the impact of the 2017 mergers will be felt during the 2018 RFP season.Suppliers are progressively moving corporate buyers away from fixed, negotiated hotel rates and toward dynamic rate pricing. There is also a global trend towards “smarter” hotels, with hotels investing in beacon technologies, messaging, in-room entertainment and more. Increasingly tech-savvy guests will use apps to check in and out, unlock their hotel room door, operate the television remotely and control room temperature.
- Across Asia Pacific, hotel prices are likely to rise 3.5% – with a large discrepancy as Japanese prices are expected to fall 6.3%, but New Zealand is set to rise a full 9.8%. Strong economies means demand is increasing in the APAC region. Buyers should anticipate a more challenging discussion with newly merged hotel groups, especially in high-volume markets such as Bangkok, Beijing, Shanghai and Singapore.
2018 Ground Transportation Projections
Ground transportation pricing is expected to rise only 1.6% in 2018 (but 5.5% by 2022). Industry experts predict record new car sales over the next five years, pushing up per unit fleet costs, while used car pricing is expected to fall 50%, hurting residual value for used rental cars and making current rental car pricing unsustainable. Market-specific regulations for curbing emissions, and rising oil prices have suppliers’ already increasing availability of “green” rental cars.
Sharing economy players such as Uber and Lyft are expected to continue double-digit growth upwards of 10% in 2018, before settling down into single-digit growth for 2019. Their growth is under threat by costly regulation and government bans.